Future Scenarios for Iran
Analysis of possible trajectories based on current conditions — internal scenarios, international involvement, and consequences of each
Last updated: January 2026
Four Main Scenarios
Continued Repression
Near-term (1-6 months)
High Likelihood
Regime maintains control through intensified security measures and economic concessions
Limited Reform
Medium-term (6-18 months)
Low Likelihood
Controlled concessions to reduce tension without fundamental change
Prolonged Unrest
Long-term (1-5 years)
Medium Likelihood
Protests continue for months/years without toppling the system
Collapse / Transition
Uncertain (could be sudden)
Low Likelihood
Regime faces rapid collapse or chaotic transition
Consequences Matrix
Impact severity of each scenario across domains (1 = minimal, 5 = catastrophic)
Political | Economic | Social | Humanitarian | Regional | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Continued Repression | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Limited Reform | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Prolonged Unrest | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Collapse / Transition | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
International Involvement
Foreign actors intervene mostly through indirect means: sanctions, cyber operations, information campaigns
Western Powers (US/EU)
Opposing Regime
Likely Actions
- Sanctions debates and enforcement
- Human rights statements and condemnation
- Nuclear program pressure
- Support for diaspora opposition
Regional Actors (Israel/Gulf/Turkey)
Opposing Regime
Likely Actions
- Intelligence operations
- Cyber operations
- Media/information campaigns
- Potential military action if escalation
Russia & China
Supporting Regime
Likely Actions
- Diplomatic cover at UN
- Economic lifelines (oil purchases)
- Military equipment sales
- Surveillance technology transfer